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On this week's episode, we deal with the Italian Regional Elections and the idea that maybe this isn't the glimmer of hope you, the New York Times, think it is.

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also have you considered Matteo Renzi?

That is not it chief

Largely a discussion of why people seem to be jumping the gun on the enormous apparent failure of Salvini to win in a left wing stronghold, spurred in part by this NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/europe/italy-election-Salvini.html?emc=rss&partner=rss

### Sardines Movement

There's no good evidence the protest movement has the kind of traction compared to the media coverage it gets. We get it, we don't like Salvini either so their movement is a good thing, but its hard to see the affect its having other than slowing the tide and preventing a major upset in one of the left's strongholds.

https://www.dw.com/en/italy-s-sardines-movement-presents-ethical-counter-to-far-right/a-52152079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

## 5* collapse

So di Maio is out as leader and the party has collapsed electorally... so an early election is probable regardless of Salvini sweeping local elections
https://www.politico.eu/article/luigi-di-maio-end-of-italy-5star-movement/

### Salvini lost apparently

There were two regional elections where Salvini's coalition of parties won one and gained 11% in another but didn't win... the worry was he'd win the Emilia-Romagna one too, which would be wild because it's been won by huge margins usually by left or communist parties in recent memory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (20point lead)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (~16 point)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (27 point)

it goes on like that going back very far.

So his alliance lost by about 7%, with a dramatically increased turnout (29% up) and the 5* were wiped out completely. So he lost somewhere he shouldn't have been even competing? Doesn't sound like what the Economist called, "another blunder"

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/01/30/regional-elections-in-italy-buttress-the-government

Sure Salvini was bigging it up but it feels more like a sense of _if_ this were to have gone his way it would be a very convincing argument that there should be an election immediately. Him not winning but increasing his share plus no change nationally doesn't really sell his loss too much

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